Inflation check

Is the economy in recession territory? CPI, fed funds, unemployment, and Sahm rule in one call.

When to use this pack

Quick macro health check — the four numbers that answer 'are we in a recession?'

Tools in this pack

• US CPI year-over-year inflation $0.015 GET /api/cpi-yoy Latest US Consumer Price Index year-over-year inflation rate (headline CPI-U) plus the trailing 12 months of YoY readings — the headline inflation number. Source: FRED CPIAUCSL with pc1 transformation. No params.
• Effective federal funds rate $0.010 GET /api/fed-funds Current effective federal funds rate plus a trailing N-day series. Source: FRED DFF (Board of Governors). ?days=30 (1-365, default 30).
• US unemployment rate (UNRATE) $0.010 GET /api/unemployment-rate Latest US unemployment rate plus a trailing N-month series for trend. Source: FRED UNRATE (Bureau of Labor Statistics). ?months=12 (1-120, default 12).
• Sahm Rule recession indicator $0.015 GET /api/sahm-rule Real-time Sahm Rule recession indicator from FRED (SAHMREALTIME series). The Sahm Rule triggers when the 3-month moving average of US unemployment rises ≥0.50 percentage points above its prior-12-month low — historically a clean recession signal. No params.

Workflow

1. Pull CPI year-over-year for the headline inflation read.
2. Get the effective fed funds rate for the current policy stance.
3. Pull the unemployment rate (U-3).
4. Compute the Sahm rule — triggers when 3-month unemployment average rises >0.5pp above its 12-month low.

Run it in Claude

claude mcp add agent402 -s user -- npx -y agent402-mcp@latest

Then paste this prompt into Claude:

Run a recession check using Agent402's inflation-check skill pack. Get (1) CPI YoY, (2) fed funds rate, (3) unemployment rate, (4) Sahm rule. Is the economy in recession territory?

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